Pertumbuhan PAD dan Ketergantungan Transfer Fiskal Daerah di NTB Analisis Panel Kabupaten/Kota 2012–2023

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the relationship between the growth of Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD) and dependence on fiscal transfers in 10 regencies and cities in West Nusa Tenggara Province during the period 2012–2023. The main issue examined is whether the increase in PAD truly reflects a strengthening of fiscal autonomy or merely indicates nominal growth that has not altered the dominance of central government transfers. The study employs a descriptive-analytical quantitative approach based on panel data comprising 120 region-year observations. Secondary data is sourced from Local Government Financial Reports and focuses on four revenue components: PAD, Revenue-Sharing Funds, General Allocation Funds, and Special Allocation Funds. The analysis was conducted by calculating growth rates, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the proportion of PAD, the transfer dependency ratio, regional fiscal typology, and fixed-effect estimates as supporting tests. The research findings indicate that aggregate PAD increased from Rp0.57 trillion in 2012 to Rp2.37 trillion in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.82% per annum. However, in 2023, PAD accounted for only 16.4% of the main revenue structure, whilst central government transfers still amounted to 83.6%. The fixed-effects estimation revealed a PAD growth coefficient of –0.066 with a p-value of 0.001, indicating a significant negative relationship between PAD growth and dependence on central government transfers, although the effect is limited. The fiscal typology identified the City of Mataram and North Lombok Regency as regions showing relative fiscal improvement, whilst several other regions remained in a state of structural dependence. This study emphasises that fiscal autonomy must be assessed based on changes in revenue structure, rather than solely on PAD growth. The contribution of this research lies in distinguishing between nominal PAD growth and structural fiscal autonomy; consequently, the findings can serve as a basis for formulating policies to enhance PAD that are fairer, more productive and more sustainable for local governments in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB).